According to the monitoring of the price data of the business agency, as of December 31, the average domestic factory price of 1.4D * 38mm polyester staple fiber was 7152 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.32% month-on-month, or an increase of 296 yuan / ton; a year-on-year decrease of 21.43%, a drop of up to 1951 yuan / ton. Large manufacturers generally offer between 7000-7300 yuan / ton, and the quotation is very stable near the end of the year.

The fundamentals of crude oil are optimistic. On Monday, oil prices went up and down. In fact, European and American crude oil futures rose by more than 10% throughout December. The first is that Sino-US trade has reached an agreement and has successfully inspired the market. The second OPEC has decided to deepen the production reduction agreement; Third, the decline in US crude oil inventories has strongly supported oil prices; fourth, the United States has taken action against Iraq and Syria, and tensions in the Middle East have also caused oil prices to rise to a certain extent.

On the 30th, PTA was affected by raw materials and fluctuated strongly. The main contract TA005 closed 44 yuan higher than the closing price of the previous trading day. On the spot side, the buying and selling atmosphere was light, and many devices were being overhauled. Ningbo Yisheng ’s 2.2 million-ton plant is scheduled for maintenance from the end of January to mid-February, and Hailun Petrochemical ’s 1.2-million-ton plant is undergoing maintenance on December 20. Yisheng Dalian ’s 2.25 million-ton plant has been shut down for maintenance and is scheduled to restart in mid-January. The operating rate of the industry has dropped to 87.19%, which has eased the pressure of PTA accumulation. The production and sales of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarns were also weak, only 46%, and the transactions were average.

The downstream 32S polyester yarn ended on the 31st, and the average ex-factory price in Shandong was 14,420 yuan / ton, down 0.14% month-on-month, or a decrease of 20 yuan / ton. It fell by 12.39% year-on-year, with a drop of up to 2040 yuan / ton. The quotations of mid-range manufacturers are concentrated at 13900-14200 yuan / ton, and the quotations of high-end manufacturers are 15,000-15300 yuan / ton. Due to the early New Year's Eve this year, most domestic manufacturers have been on holiday, but the yarn has recently shown a slight upward trend, which is doubtful whether the manufacturers intend to support the price. Firstly, the rise of downstream grey fabrics is only temporary, and most of them are mainly destocking. Secondly, the rise of yarns this time is only due to upstream raw materials. If the terminal demand cannot keep up, the price will decline in the later stage.

To sum up, business analysts believe that the fundamentals of crude oil are good, and many parties are reducing production; PTA supply and demand margins have weakened, polyester production and sales are low, terminal demand cycle has entered a low season, and the fundamentals of PTA are weak. Downstream yarns rose abnormally, although demand did not improve significantly. PTA prices are expected to edge up slightly in January.